DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/22 11:02
Corn, Wheat Up, Soybeans Down Midday Friday
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher, beans are 6 to 7 cents lower and wheat is
11 to 19 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market was weaker with the Dow down 60 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 0.05 weaker. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are
mixed with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals
are mixed with gold up $20.00.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday Friday with trade finding light
buying and support from wheat to keep trade in the upper part of the recent
range, with hedge pressure likely into the weekend. Harvest will continue to
make further progress short term as we head toward the homestretch. Ethanol
margins should remain stable to better short term, with production continuing
to surge despite natural gas prices as we work to rebuild stocks as driving
demand continues to edge higher. Basis should remain steady to firmer short
term as harvest pressure eases. On the December contract, we have chart support
at the 200-day moving average at $5.20 with the $5.06 3/4 low last Wednesday
now a major support area. Chart resistance is right around the $5.40 area,
which is the recent high and the 50-day moving average, with larger upside
resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $5.47.
Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents lower with trade turning lower at midday as
good yields and good early progress in South America limit upside. Meal is
$0.50 to $1.50 higher and oil is 0.45 cent to 0.65 cent lower. Harvest will
continue to progress with open enough weather and basis stable as shipping
progress increases. Chart momentum has turned sideways short term with day
session weakness to possibly push action further into support levels. On the
November soybean chart support is at the $12.22 10-day moving average which we
are below and then the recent low of $11.84 3/4 with resistance at the 20-day
currently at $12.38 then the 50-day at $12.81.
Wheat trade is 12 to 20 cents higher at midday with trade pushing back
towards the top of the range up front with KC leading and strong intramonth
spread trade as Russia raises export taxes yet again. The weaker dollar is
helping to add support as well. Spring wheat remains at a 2.52-cent premium to
Chicago, with KC at 13-cent premium in firmer action. Weather in the Plains
remains fairly neutral for the moment with the first condition reports likely
next week. KC December chart support is at the 20-day at $7.37 with resistance
at the upper Bollinger Band at $7.69, which we are just below.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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